Steve Witkoff’s week reads like a Cold War thriller. On Tuesday the US special envoy sat with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Norway, alongside the Norwegian and Finnish leaders; on Wednesday he flies to St. Petersburg to present Russia’s leadership with the peace proposals hammered out in Oslo. The destination of the shuttle: a trilateral summit that would be the first of its kind since the full-scale invasion began.
Zelenskyy called the trilateral “one of the most important ideas” on the table, a meeting of the US, Russian and Ukrainian leaders to address what he says only the leaders can resolve: territory and real security guarantees. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre called the Oslo talks constructive and said he hoped they would help organize a summit at the highest level.
The Budapest question
Trump has said he will meet Putin in Budapest in the coming weeks, and Zelenskyy told NBC on October 19 that he is ready to join a Budapest meeting, even as he doubts Putin wants to end the war. “I’m not sure Putin is ready to end the war,” he said. “I think he wants to continue the aggression.” The Ukrainian leader also said Putin is “afraid of sanctions,” arguing that secondary sanctions would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
Trump, for his part, is managing expectations in both directions. He said a trilateral is possible but added, “I think I can organize it differently. It’s hard for them to be in the same room.” He also said Putin does not need to meet Zelenskyy to sign an agreement, a line that will have alarmed Kyiv, where the mantra is nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
The Tomahawk shadow
Hanging over the diplomacy is the weapons question. Zelenskyy arrived at the White House on October 17, his third visit this year, hoping for long-range Tomahawk missiles in exchange for Ukrainian drone technology. Trump cooled to the idea: “It was good that President Trump didn’t say ‘no,’ but for today, didn’t say ‘yes,'” Zelenskyy said. The threat of Tomahawks remains leverage, and Zelenskyy believes Putin fears their delivery.
The domestic clock is ticking too, with Trump taking the midterm fight to Wichita as the midterms become the most expensive election ever. NHK’s reporting on the Oslo talks notes that the question now is how Russia responds after Witkoff’s St. Petersburg visit. The shuttle is moving; the destination is still undecided.
